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Gravina vs Real Normanna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Gravina

PPG 1.81 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Real Normanna

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-112.0%0-24.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-17.2%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% — — —

Draw 35.3% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 29.6% — — —

Over 3.5 12.5% — — —

BTTS 38.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.7%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gravina1.1

Real Normanna0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAVINA · PPG 1.81

REAL NORMANNA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=40.3%

Win probability 1X2

Gravina (H) 40.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Normanna (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gravina face Real Normanna in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gravina a 40% chance, the draw 35% and Real Normanna 24%, so Gravina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gravina and 0.8 for Real Normanna (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gravina are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.81 for Real Normanna. This match finished 3-2.

Gravina vs Real Normanna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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