Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / Nola vs Martina Calcio

Nola vs Martina Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Nola

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Martina Calcio

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.4%0-27.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-17.2%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 39.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nola1.1

Martina Calcio1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOLA · PPG 1.38

MARTINA CALCIO · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Nola (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Martina Calcio (A) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nola face Martina Calcio in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nola a 30% chance, the draw 31% and Martina Calcio 39%, so Martina Calcio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nola and 1.3 for Martina Calcio (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nola are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.44 for Martina Calcio. This match finished 2-1.

Nola vs Martina Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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