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Afragolese vs Gravina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Afragolese

PPG 1.94 · HOME

0 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gravina

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.1%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.0%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.2%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-16.6%4+-23.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-6

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afragolese2.2

Gravina1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AFRAGOLESE · PPG 1.94

GRAVINA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Afragolese (H) 55.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gravina (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Afragolese face Gravina in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afragolese a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Gravina 21%, so Afragolese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Afragolese and 1.0 for Gravina (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afragolese are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.25 for Gravina. This match finished 0-6.

Afragolese vs Gravina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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