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UNSW vs WS Wanderers B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

UNSW

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

WS Wanderers B

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.0%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.7%1-19.2%1-27.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.3%3-15.4%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 45.5% 2.20 -3.4%

Draw 22.2% 29.4% 3.40 -24.5%

Away win 34.0% 35.7% 2.80 -4.8%

Over 2.5 67.7% 59.9% 1.67 +13.1%

Over 3.5 46.1% 37.0% 2.70 +24.5%

BTTS 67.9% 65.4% 1.53 +3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob67.9%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.9

WS Wanderers B1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.50

WS WANDERERS B · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -24.5%

WS Wanderers B (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face WS Wanderers B in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 44% chance, the draw 22% and WS Wanderers B 34%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for UNSW and 1.6 for WS Wanderers B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for WS Wanderers B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 2-1.

UNSW vs WS Wanderers B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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