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S. Ogliastra vs Olbia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

S. Ogliastra

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olbia

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.1%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.1%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Ogliastra1.5

Olbia1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

S. OGLIASTRA · PPG 1.38

OLBIA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Ogliastra (H) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Olbia (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Ogliastra face Olbia in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Ogliastra a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Olbia 28%, so S. Ogliastra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for S. Ogliastra and 1.2 for Olbia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Ogliastra are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Olbia. This match finished 2-2.

S. Ogliastra vs Olbia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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