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Monastir vs Nocerina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Monastir

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nocerina

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.8%0-25.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 20.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0✓ 12.3%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monastir1.2

Nocerina1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONASTIR · PPG 1.88

NOCERINA · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Monastir (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nocerina (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monastir face Nocerina in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monastir a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Nocerina 30%, so Monastir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Monastir and 1.1 for Nocerina (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monastir are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.81 for Nocerina. This match finished 1-0.

Monastir vs Nocerina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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