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Montespaccato vs Flaminia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Montespaccato

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Flaminia

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.7%0-27.5%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 28.6% — — —

Away win 43.1% — — —

Over 2.5 52.2% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 57.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.2%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montespaccato1.2

Flaminia1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTESPACCATO · PPG 0.88

FLAMINIA · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Montespaccato (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Flaminia (A) 43.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montespaccato face Flaminia in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montespaccato a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Flaminia 43%, so Flaminia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Montespaccato and 1.5 for Flaminia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montespaccato are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.69 for Flaminia. This match finished 2-4.

Montespaccato vs Flaminia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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