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Nocerina vs Ischia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Nocerina

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ischia

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.2%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.5%1-112.7%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% — — —

Draw 31.2% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 40.9% — — —

Over 3.5 20.5% — — —

BTTS 47.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.5%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nocerina1.4

Ischia0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NOCERINA · PPG 1.13

ISCHIA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Nocerina (H) 45.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ischia (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nocerina face Ischia in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nocerina a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Ischia 24%, so Nocerina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nocerina and 0.9 for Ischia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nocerina are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.06 for Ischia. This match finished 0-1.

Nocerina vs Ischia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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