Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / A. Lodigiani vs R. Monterotondo

A. Lodigiani vs R. Monterotondo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

A. Lodigiani

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

R. Monterotondo

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.6%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.5%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 30.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Lodigiani1.9

R. Monterotondo0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

A. LODIGIANI · PPG 1.69

R. MONTEROTONDO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

A. Lodigiani (H) 49.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

R. Monterotondo (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Lodigiani face R. Monterotondo in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Lodigiani a 50% chance, the draw 28% and R. Monterotondo 22%, so A. Lodigiani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for A. Lodigiani and 0.9 for R. Monterotondo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Lodigiani are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.63 for R. Monterotondo. This match finished 0-2.

A. Lodigiani vs R. Monterotondo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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