Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / R. Monterotondo vs Valmontone

R. Monterotondo vs Valmontone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

R. Monterotondo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Valmontone

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.7%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 34.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.8% — — —

Over 3.5 33.4% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.6%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Monterotondo1.5

Valmontone1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

R. MONTEROTONDO · PPG 1.44

VALMONTONE · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

R. Monterotondo (H) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Valmontone (A) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Monterotondo face Valmontone in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Monterotondo a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Valmontone 35%, so R. Monterotondo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for R. Monterotondo and 1.4 for Valmontone (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Monterotondo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.63 for Valmontone. This match finished 0-5.

R. Monterotondo vs Valmontone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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