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Anzio vs Trastevere Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Anzio

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Trastevere

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.6%0-27.4%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-17.3%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.0%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 37.0% 2.70 -22.0%

Draw 28.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.6%

Away win 42.5% 42.6% 2.35 -0.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Over 3.5 30.3% 36.4% 2.75 -16.7%

BTTS 57.6% 64.5% 1.55 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.6%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anzio1.2

Trastevere1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANZIO · PPG 1.06

TRASTEVERE · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Anzio (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.0%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.6%

Trastevere (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anzio face Trastevere in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anzio a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Trastevere 43%, so Trastevere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Anzio and 1.5 for Trastevere (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anzio are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.56 for Trastevere. This match finished 2-0.

Anzio vs Trastevere Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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