Today / Australia - New South Wales NPL / SD Raiders vs S George Saints

SD Raiders vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

S George Saints

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.0%0-26.6%0-34.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.2%1-19.9%1-29.3%1-35.8%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-16.9%2-26.5%2-34.1%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.7%3-13.3%3-23.1%3-31.9%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -22.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.4% 3.65 -18.2%

Away win 48.8% 45.5% 2.20 +7.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 63.7% 1.57 +0.3%

Over 3.5 41.8% 41.7% 2.40 +0.3%

BTTS 64.1% 69.0% 1.45 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.1%

A 49% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.4

S George Saints1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 0.80

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -18.2%

S George Saints (A) 48.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face S George Saints in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 29% chance, the draw 22% and S George Saints 49%, so S George Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SD Raiders and 1.9 for S George Saints (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.40 for S George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 1-0.

SD Raiders vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - New South Wales NPL Predictions