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Australia - New South Wales NPL
Regular Season - 11
Ernie Smith Reserve
Saturday, April 18, 2026
07:00
SD Raiders
PPG 0.80
1-0
MISS
S George Saints
PPG 1.40
Away· +7.4%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
28.8%
Odds: 2.70
EV: -22.2%
Draw
22.4%
Odds: 3.65
EV: -18.2%
Away
48.8%
Odds: 2.20
EV: +7.4%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
63.9%
Odds: 1.57
+0.3%
Over 3.5
41.8%
Odds: 2.40
+0.3%
BTTS
64.1%
Odds: 1.45
-7.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
1-2
✘
3rd
0-1
✘
4th
2-1
✘
5th
0-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
SD Raiders
1.41
S George Saints
1.89
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-7.1%
EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking:
excluded — EV is negative (-7.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
66%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.80)