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Chieti vs Giulianova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Chieti

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Giulianova

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-117.5%0-210.4%0-34.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.7%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.9%2-14.6%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 31.3% 3.20 -27.4%

Draw 30.5% 33.9% 2.95 -10.0%

Away win 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 2.5 30.0% 47.6% 2.10 -37.0%

Over 3.5 12.8% — — —

BTTS 35.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob35.9%

A 47% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 1–0✓ 10.7%

#5 0–2 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chieti0.7

Giulianova1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIETI · PPG 1.20

GIULIANOVA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Chieti (H) 22.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -27.4%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.0%

Giulianova (A) 46.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chieti face Giulianova in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chieti a 23% chance, the draw 31% and Giulianova 47%, so Giulianova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Chieti and 1.2 for Giulianova (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chieti are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.07 for Giulianova. This match finished 1-0.

Chieti vs Giulianova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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