Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / San Marino C. vs Teramo

San Marino C. vs Teramo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

San Marino C.

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Teramo

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 75.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+35.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-111.1%0-213.2%0-310.6%0-4+11.2%1 1-03.1%1-17.5%1-29.0%1-37.2%1-4+7.6%2 2-01.1%2-12.6%2-23.1%2-32.4%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.7% 24.4% 4.10 -64.3%

Draw 15.8% 32.3% 3.10 -51.0%

Away win 75.5% 55.6% 1.80 +35.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 50.0% 2.00 +18.6%

Over 3.5 37.0% — — —

BTTS 44.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob44.8%

A 76% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 0–3 10.6%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marino C.0.7

Teramo2.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARINO C. · PPG 1.07

TERAMO · PPG 2.27

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

San Marino C. (H) 8.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -64.3%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -51.0%

Teramo (A) 75.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marino C. face Teramo in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marino C. a 9% chance, the draw 16% and Teramo 76%, so Teramo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for San Marino C. and 2.4 for Teramo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marino C. are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 2.27 for Teramo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 1-3.

San Marino C. vs Teramo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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