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Ancona 1905 vs Sammaurese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Ancona 1905

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sammaurese

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 94.1% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-10.6%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.3%1-12.2%1-20.4%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.2%2-14.2%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-15.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-036.1%4+-114.9%4+-23.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 94.1% 89.3% 1.12 +5.4%

Draw 4.6% 18.5% 5.40 -75.2%

Away win 1.4% 4.8% 21.00 -70.6%

Over 2.5 80.3% 61.7% 1.62 +30.1%

Over 3.5 62.4% — — —

BTTS 33.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob33.0%

H 94% / xG 3.9-0.4 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 13.3%

#2 4–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 5–0 10.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ancona 19053.9

Sammaurese0.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.3% · O3.5 PROB 62.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANCONA 1905 · PPG 2.13

SAMMAURESE · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.13), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ancona 1905 (H) 94.1%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV +5.4%

Draw 4.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -75.2%

Sammaurese (A) 1.4%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV -70.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ancona 1905 face Sammaurese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ancona 1905 a 94% chance, the draw 5% and Sammaurese 1%, so Ancona 1905 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Ancona 1905 and 0.4 for Sammaurese (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ancona 1905 are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.36 for Sammaurese. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Ancona 1905 vs Sammaurese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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