Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone

Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Atletico Ascoli

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Fossombrone

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-15.7%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-19.5%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.0%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.9%3-14.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-12.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.4% 67.6% 1.48 -1.7%

Draw 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

Away win 10.7% 17.2% 5.80 -37.9%

Over 2.5 37.4% 54.6% 1.83 -31.6%

Over 3.5 17.9% — — —

BTTS 32.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.3%

H 66% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 1–1✓ 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Ascoli1.7

Fossombrone0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ASCOLI · PPG 1.93

FOSSOMBRONE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Ascoli (H) 66.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.9%

Fossombrone (A) 10.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Ascoli face Fossombrone in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Ascoli a 66% chance, the draw 23% and Fossombrone 11%, so Atletico Ascoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Ascoli and 0.5 for Fossombrone (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Ascoli are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.13 for Fossombrone. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone F Predictions