Atletico Ascoli vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 32 Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca· Ascoli Piceno Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Atletico Ascoli PPG 1.93

1-1 HIT CS4

Fossombrone PPG 1.13

Home· -1.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Ascoli face Fossombrone in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Ascoli a 66% chance, the draw 23% and Fossombrone 11%, so Atletico Ascoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Ascoli and 0.5 for Fossombrone (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Ascoli are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.13 for Fossombrone. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.4%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -1.7%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -14.9%

Away 10.7%

Odds: 5.80 EV: -37.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.4% Odds: 1.83 -31.6%

Over 3.5 17.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 32.3% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✔

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Ascoli

1.68

Fossombrone

0.51

Model SuggestionHome -1.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -1.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)