Teramo vs Recanatese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 33 Stadio Gaetano Bonolis· Teramo Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Teramo PPG 2.27

2-2 MISS

Recanatese PPG 0.69

Over3.5· +33.2% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Teramo face Recanatese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teramo a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Recanatese 7%, so Teramo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Teramo and 0.6 for Recanatese (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teramo are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.69 for Recanatese. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 72.0%

Odds: 1.33 EV: -4.2%

Draw 20.8%

Odds: 4.55 EV: -5.4%

Away 7.1%

Odds: 7.10 EV: -49.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.59 -3.8%

Over 3.5 54.8% Odds: 2.43 +33.2%

BTTS 49.5% Odds: 1.81 -10.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 5-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Teramo

3.35

Recanatese

0.56

Model SuggestionHome -4.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-4.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus