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Teramo vs Recanatese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Teramo

PPG 2.27 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Recanatese

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.1%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-13.8%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.3%2-16.3%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.6%3-17.0%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.6%4+-113.8%4+-23.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.0% 75.2% 1.33 -4.2%

Draw 20.8% 22.0% 4.55 -5.4%

Away win 7.1% 14.1% 7.10 -49.6%

Over 2.5 60.5% 62.9% 1.59 -3.8%

Over 3.5 54.8% 41.2% 2.43 +33.2%

BTTS 49.5% 55.2% 1.81 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 72% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 4–0 10.5%

#4 5–0 7.0%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teramo3.3

Recanatese0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TERAMO · PPG 2.27

RECANATESE · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Teramo (H) 72.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -4.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -5.4%

Recanatese (A) 7.1%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV -49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Teramo face Recanatese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teramo a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Recanatese 7%, so Teramo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Teramo and 0.6 for Recanatese (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teramo are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.69 for Recanatese. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Teramo vs Recanatese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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