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Prato PPG 2.38 
Montevarchi PPG 1.38
Prato vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E
Prato PPG 2.381-0 HIT CS3
Montevarchi PPG 1.38 ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Preview & Prediction
Prato face Montevarchi in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prato a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Montevarchi 22%, so Prato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Prato and 0.8 for Montevarchi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prato are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.38 for Montevarchi. This match finished 1-0.
Match Result (1X2)
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 35.0% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 16.1% Odds: — —
BTTS 42.2% Odds: — —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✔
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Prato 1.29
Montevarchi 0.81
Model Suggestion
No Bet MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 22 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 55%
O2.5/Under 68%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 59%
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=45.8%