Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone E / Prato vs Montevarchi

Prato vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Prato

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Montevarchi

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-19.9%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-112.8%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.3%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 16.1% — — —

BTTS 42.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.2%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0✓ 15.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prato1.3

Montevarchi0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PRATO · PPG 2.38

MONTEVARCHI · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

Prato (H) 45.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montevarchi (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Prato face Montevarchi in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prato a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Montevarchi 22%, so Prato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Prato and 0.8 for Montevarchi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prato are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.38 for Montevarchi. This match finished 1-0.

Prato vs Montevarchi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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