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Grosseto vs San Donato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Italy - Serie D - Girone E logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone E Group E - 33 Stadio Carlo Zecchini· Grosseto Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00
Grosseto logo Grosseto PPG 2.19
0-2 MISS
San Donato logo San Donato PPG 1.00
Home· +6.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
68% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Grosseto face San Donato in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grosseto a 68% chance, the draw 22% and San Donato 9%, so Grosseto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Grosseto and 0.4 for San Donato (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grosseto are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.00 for San Donato. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 68.3%
Odds: 1.56 EV: +6.6%
Draw 22.4%
Odds: 3.40 EV: -23.8%
Away 9.3%
Odds: 5.40 EV: -49.8%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: —
Over 3.5 28.3% Odds: —
BTTS 39.6% Odds: —
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 4-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Grosseto
2.30
San Donato
0.39

Model Suggestion

Home +6.6% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
68%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.19), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

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