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Grosseto vs San Donato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Grosseto

PPG 2.19 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Donato

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-12.6%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.7%1-16.1%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.0%2-17.0%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.8%3-15.3%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-15.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 64.1% 1.56 +6.6%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -23.8%

Away win 9.3% 18.5% 5.40 -49.8%

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.4 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 3–0 13.8%

#4 4–0 7.9%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grosseto2.3

San Donato0.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GROSSETO · PPG 2.19

SAN DONATO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.19), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Grosseto (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV +6.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.8%

San Donato (A) 9.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grosseto face San Donato in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grosseto a 68% chance, the draw 22% and San Donato 9%, so Grosseto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Grosseto and 0.4 for San Donato (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grosseto are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.00 for San Donato. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Grosseto vs San Donato Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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