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Poggibonsi vs Scandicci Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Poggibonsi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Scandicci

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-114.8%0-28.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.5%2-16.1%2-23.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 38.0% — — —

Over 2.5 32.6% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.8%

A 38% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0✓ 12.1%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Poggibonsi0.9

Scandicci1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

POGGIBONSI · PPG 1.00

SCANDICCI · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Poggibonsi (H) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Scandicci (A) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Poggibonsi face Scandicci in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Poggibonsi a 28% chance, the draw 35% and Scandicci 38%, so Scandicci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Poggibonsi and 1.1 for Scandicci (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Poggibonsi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Scandicci. This match finished 1-0.

Poggibonsi vs Scandicci Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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