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San Donato vs Seravezza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

San Donato

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Seravezza

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-114.3%0-27.3%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.3%2-16.4%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Draw 35.2% 33.3% 3.00 +5.6%

Away win 34.2% 44.4% 2.25 -23.1%

Over 2.5 31.4% 45.5% 2.20 -30.9%

Over 3.5 13.7% 23.8% 4.20 -42.5%

BTTS 41.1% 54.1% 1.85 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.1%

D 35% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Donato0.9

Seravezza1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DONATO · PPG 1.25

SERAVEZZA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

San Donato (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.6%

Seravezza (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Donato face Seravezza in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Donato a 31% chance, the draw 35% and Seravezza 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for San Donato and 1.0 for Seravezza (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Donato are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Seravezza. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-1.

San Donato vs Seravezza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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