Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone E / Camaiore Calcio vs FC Siena

Camaiore Calcio vs FC Siena Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Camaiore Calcio

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Siena

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.9%0-26.9%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 37.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Camaiore Calcio1.3

FC Siena1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMAIORE CALCIO · PPG 1.06

FC SIENA · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.81) vs Home AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Camaiore Calcio (H) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Siena (A) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Camaiore Calcio face FC Siena in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Camaiore Calcio a 34% chance, the draw 28% and FC Siena 38%, so FC Siena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Camaiore Calcio and 1.6 for FC Siena (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Camaiore Calcio are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.81 for FC Siena. This match finished 2-5.

Camaiore Calcio vs FC Siena Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone E Predictions