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Montevarchi PPG 1.31 
Ghiviborgo PPG 0.75
Montevarchi vs Ghiviborgo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E
Montevarchi PPG 1.311-0 HIT CS2
Ghiviborgo PPG 0.75 ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Preview & Prediction
Montevarchi face Ghiviborgo in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montevarchi a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Ghiviborgo 25%, so Montevarchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Montevarchi and 0.8 for Ghiviborgo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montevarchi are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.75 for Ghiviborgo. This match finished 1-0.
Match Result (1X2)
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 16.7% Odds: — —
BTTS 49.5% Odds: — —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✔
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Montevarchi 1.33
Ghiviborgo 0.80
Model Suggestion
No Bet MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 22 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 55%
O2.5/Under 68%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 59%
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
MODERATE_HOME 52%
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.75)