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Montevarchi vs Ghiviborgo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Montevarchi

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Ghiviborgo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-19.4%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% — — —

Draw 30.3% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.7% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0✓ 15.9%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montevarchi1.3

Ghiviborgo0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEVARCHI · PPG 1.31

GHIVIBORGO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Montevarchi (H) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ghiviborgo (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montevarchi face Ghiviborgo in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montevarchi a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Ghiviborgo 25%, so Montevarchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Montevarchi and 0.8 for Ghiviborgo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montevarchi are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.75 for Ghiviborgo. This match finished 1-0.

Montevarchi vs Ghiviborgo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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