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Scandicci vs Gavorrano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Scandicci

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gavorrano

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-13.5%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-17.9%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-16.7%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-16.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 15.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 32.9% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scandicci2.3

Gavorrano0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SCANDICCI · PPG 1.75

GAVORRANO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Scandicci (H) 59.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gavorrano (A) 15.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Scandicci face Gavorrano in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scandicci a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Gavorrano 16%, so Scandicci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Scandicci and 0.6 for Gavorrano (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scandicci are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.06 for Gavorrano. This match finished 1-3.

Scandicci vs Gavorrano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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