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Cannara vs Poggibonsi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Cannara

PPG 1.13 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Poggibonsi

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-110.9%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-18.0%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% — — —

Draw 33.5% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 16.9% — — —

BTTS 49.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.7%

H 39% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cannara1.2

Poggibonsi0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CANNARA · PPG 1.13

POGGIBONSI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Cannara (H) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Poggibonsi (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cannara face Poggibonsi in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cannara a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Poggibonsi 28%, so Cannara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cannara and 0.9 for Poggibonsi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cannara are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.75 for Poggibonsi. This match finished 3-2.

Cannara vs Poggibonsi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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