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Foligno vs Cannara Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Foligno

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cannara

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 25.2% — — —

BTTS 46.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0✓ 13.8%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Foligno1.8

Cannara0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLIGNO · PPG 1.88

CANNARA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Foligno (H) 59.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cannara (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Foligno face Cannara in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Foligno a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Cannara 15%, so Foligno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Foligno and 0.8 for Cannara (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Foligno are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.44 for Cannara. This match finished 1-0.

Foligno vs Cannara Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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