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Vigasio vs Legnago Salus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Vigasio

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Legnago Salus

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.4%0-27.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-17.5%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 52.5% — — —

Over 3.5 30.3% — — —

BTTS 57.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.7%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vigasio1.3

Legnago Salus1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VIGASIO · PPG 1.38

LEGNAGO SALUS · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Vigasio (H) 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Legnago Salus (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vigasio face Legnago Salus in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vigasio a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Legnago Salus 41%, so Legnago Salus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vigasio and 1.5 for Legnago Salus (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vigasio are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.25 for Legnago Salus. This match finished 1-4.

Vigasio vs Legnago Salus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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