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San Luigi vs Obermais Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

San Luigi

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Obermais

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.7%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.5%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.0%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 32.0% — — —

Over 2.5 42.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 49.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luigi1.2

Obermais1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIGI · PPG 1.06

OBERMAIS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

San Luigi (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Obermais (A) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luigi face Obermais in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luigi a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Obermais 32%, so San Luigi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Luigi and 1.1 for Obermais (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luigi are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.50 for Obermais. This match finished 1-1.

San Luigi vs Obermais Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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