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Brian Lignano vs Bassano Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Brian Lignano

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Bassano Virtus

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-19.7%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.1%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 48.8% 2.05 -7.1%

Draw 30.4% 31.3% 3.20 -2.7%

Away win 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -24.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

Over 3.5 15.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brian Lignano1.3

Bassano Virtus0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIAN LIGNANO · PPG 1.75

BASSANO VIRTUS · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Brian Lignano (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -7.1%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.7%

Bassano Virtus (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brian Lignano face Bassano Virtus in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brian Lignano a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Bassano Virtus 24%, so Brian Lignano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brian Lignano and 0.8 for Bassano Virtus (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brian Lignano are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.31 for Bassano Virtus. This match finished 1-1.

Brian Lignano vs Bassano Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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