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Altavilla vs Mestre Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Altavilla

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Mestre

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.4%0-115.0%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-111.7%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.8%2-14.6%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

Draw 39.1% 35.1% 2.85 +11.4%

Away win 25.4% 40.8% 2.45 -37.8%

Over 2.5 24.2% — — —

Over 3.5 5.0% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.6%

H 36% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.4%

#2 1–0✓ 19.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–1 15.0%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altavilla0.8

Mestre0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTAVILLA · PPG 1.50

MESTRE · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Altavilla (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 39.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +11.4%

Mestre (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altavilla face Mestre in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altavilla a 36% chance, the draw 39% and Mestre 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Altavilla and 0.6 for Mestre (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altavilla are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.63 for Mestre. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Altavilla vs Mestre Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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