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Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Bassano Virtus

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Calvi Noale

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-110.2%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-113.0%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.3%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 36.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.0% — — —

BTTS 43.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.8%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1✓ 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bassano Virtus1.3

Calvi Noale0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BASSANO VIRTUS · PPG 1.75

CALVI NOALE · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=43.8%

Win probability 1X2

Bassano Virtus (H) 43.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Calvi Noale (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bassano Virtus face Calvi Noale in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bassano Virtus a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Calvi Noale 24%, so Bassano Virtus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bassano Virtus and 0.9 for Calvi Noale (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bassano Virtus are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.94 for Calvi Noale. This match finished 0-1.

Bassano Virtus vs Calvi Noale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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