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Mestre vs Treviso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Mestre

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Treviso

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.3%0-28.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.6%2-16.3%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 34.2% — — —

Away win 37.5% — — —

Over 2.5 33.9% — — —

Over 3.5 15.4% — — —

BTTS 43.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob43.0%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 1–0✓ 12.0%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mestre0.9

Treviso1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.9% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MESTRE · PPG 1.63

TREVISO · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Mestre (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Treviso (A) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mestre face Treviso in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mestre a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Treviso 38%, so Treviso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mestre and 1.1 for Treviso (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mestre are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.19 for Treviso. This match finished 1-0.

Mestre vs Treviso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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