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Adriese vs Brian Lignano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Adriese

PPG 0.81 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Brian Lignano

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.2%0-210.4%0-35.9%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.1%2-15.3%2-24.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.7% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 53.9% — — —

Over 2.5 49.0% — — —

Over 3.5 27.1% — — —

BTTS 51.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob51.2%

A 54% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 0–2 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adriese0.9

Brian Lignano1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADRIESE · PPG 0.81

BRIAN LIGNANO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Adriese (H) 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brian Lignano (A) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adriese face Brian Lignano in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adriese a 19% chance, the draw 27% and Brian Lignano 54%, so Brian Lignano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Adriese and 1.7 for Brian Lignano (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adriese are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.50 for Brian Lignano. This match finished 0-4.

Adriese vs Brian Lignano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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