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Este vs Luparense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Este

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Luparense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-110.7%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-18.1%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.3%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% — — —

Draw 33.1% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 36.0% — — —

Over 3.5 16.8% — — —

BTTS 44.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.1%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0✓ 8.9%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Este1.2

Luparense0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTE · PPG 1.69

LUPARENSE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Este (H) 41.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luparense (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Este face Luparense in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Este a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Luparense 25%, so Este are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Este and 0.9 for Luparense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Este are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.25 for Luparense. This match finished 2-0.

Este vs Luparense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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