Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone C / Conegliano vs Altavilla

Conegliano vs Altavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Conegliano

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Altavilla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-113.6%0-24.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.8%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.5%2-16.1%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — — —

Draw 37.9% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 23.6% — — —

Over 3.5 8.9% — — —

BTTS 33.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob33.5%

H 37% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1✓ 13.6%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Conegliano0.9

Altavilla0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.6% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CONEGLIANO · PPG 1.88

ALTAVILLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=37.4%

Win probability 1X2

Conegliano (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 37.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altavilla (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Conegliano face Altavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Conegliano a 37% chance, the draw 38% and Altavilla 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Conegliano and 0.7 for Altavilla (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Conegliano are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Altavilla. This match finished 0-1.

Conegliano vs Altavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone C Predictions