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Valenzana vs Chisola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Valenzana

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Chisola

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.4%0-27.3%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-17.2%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Draw 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

Away win 36.0% 43.5% 2.30 -17.2%

Over 2.5 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

Over 3.5 19.0% 23.8% 4.20 -20.2%

BTTS 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.4%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valenzana1.1

Chisola1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENZANA · PPG 1.56

CHISOLA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Valenzana (H) 31.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.9%

Chisola (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valenzana face Chisola in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valenzana a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Chisola 36%, so Chisola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Valenzana and 1.2 for Chisola (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valenzana are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.40 for Chisola. This match finished 2-3.

Valenzana vs Chisola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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