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Club Milano vs Asti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Club Milano

PPG 1.31 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Asti

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.9%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.9%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

Draw 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Away win 31.5% 35.1% 2.85 -10.2%

Over 2.5 40.9% 48.8% 2.05 -16.2%

Over 3.5 20.5% 27.0% 3.70 -24.1%

BTTS 49.0% 55.6% 1.80 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Milano1.2

Asti1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB MILANO · PPG 1.31

ASTI · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Club Milano (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -14.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.5%

Asti (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Milano face Asti in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Milano a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Asti 32%, so Club Milano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Club Milano and 1.1 for Asti (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Milano are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.19 for Asti. This match finished 4-1.

Club Milano vs Asti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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