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AS Biellese vs Gozzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

AS Biellese

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gozzano

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 49.5% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-15.8%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-110.0%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.7%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-15.1%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 49.5% 2.02 +11.5%

Draw 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -11.0%

Away win 16.2% 29.6% 3.38 -45.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.9% 2.13 +6.5%

Over 3.5 20.8% 26.7% 3.74 -22.2%

BTTS 49.5% 53.8% 1.86 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0✓ 14.6%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Biellese1.7

Gozzano0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AS BIELLESE · PPG 1.69

GOZZANO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

AS Biellese (H) 55.2%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +11.5%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.0%

Gozzano (A) 16.2%

ODDS 3.38 · IMPLIED 29.6% EV -45.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Biellese face Gozzano in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Biellese a 55% chance, the draw 29% and Gozzano 16%, so AS Biellese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AS Biellese and 0.6 for Gozzano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Biellese are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.06 for Gozzano. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 2-0.

AS Biellese vs Gozzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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