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Valenzana vs Lavagnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Valenzana

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Lavagnese

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.5%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.6%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 38.5% 2.60 +28.4%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 22.2% 40.8% 2.45 -45.6%

Over 2.5 35.5% 51.3% 1.95 -30.8%

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 40.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.1%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0✓ 10.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valenzana1.3

Lavagnese0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENZANA · PPG 1.47

LAVAGNESE · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Valenzana (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +28.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Lavagnese (A) 22.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -45.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valenzana face Lavagnese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valenzana a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Lavagnese 22%, so Valenzana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Valenzana and 0.8 for Lavagnese (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valenzana are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Lavagnese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Valenzana vs Lavagnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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