Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / NovaRomentin vs Vado

NovaRomentin vs Vado Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

NovaRomentin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Vado

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-110.8%0-214.1%0-312.3%0-4+15.1%1 1-02.4%1-16.2%1-28.1%1-37.1%1-4+8.7%2 2-00.7%2-11.8%2-22.3%2-32.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.5% 13.9% 7.20 -38.8%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.0%

Away win 67.5% 73.5% 1.36 -8.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 62.5% 1.60 -5.6%

Over 3.5 39.6% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob49.5%

A 68% / xG 0.6-2.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.1%

#2 0–3 12.3%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 0–4 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NovaRomentin0.6

Vado2.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVAROMENTIN · PPG 1.00

VADO · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

NovaRomentin (H) 8.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -38.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.0%

Vado (A) 67.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NovaRomentin face Vado in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NovaRomentin a 9% chance, the draw 24% and Vado 68%, so Vado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for NovaRomentin and 2.6 for Vado (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NovaRomentin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.94 for Vado. This match finished 0-5.

NovaRomentin vs Vado Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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