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Gozzano vs Chisola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Gozzano

PPG 1.07 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Chisola

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-114.0%0-26.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.2%2-16.5%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.3%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 32.3% 38.5% 2.60 -16.0%

Over 2.5 28.8% 43.5% 2.30 -33.8%

Over 3.5 12.0% — — —

BTTS 36.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob36.8%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gozzano1.0

Chisola0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOZZANO · PPG 1.07

CHISOLA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.07) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Gozzano (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.2%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Chisola (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gozzano face Chisola in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gozzano a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Chisola 32%, so Gozzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gozzano and 0.9 for Chisola (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gozzano are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.50 for Chisola. This match finished 3-2.

Gozzano vs Chisola Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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