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Vado vs Cairese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Vado

PPG 2.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cairese

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-13.7%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.5%1-17.1%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.8%2-16.8%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.0%3-14.4%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-13.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.3% 69.0% 1.45 +9.2%

Draw 18.6% 27.8% 3.60 -33.0%

Away win 6.1% 15.6% 6.40 -61.0%

Over 2.5 40.1% 48.8% 2.05 -17.8%

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 26.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob26.0%

H 75% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 2–0✓ 18.8%

#3 3–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vado1.9

Cairese0.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VADO · PPG 2.53

CAIRESE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.53), Away AVERAGE (1.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vado (H) 75.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -33.0%

Cairese (A) 6.1%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -61.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vado face Cairese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vado a 75% chance, the draw 19% and Cairese 6%, so Vado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vado and 0.4 for Cairese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vado are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.40 for Cairese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Vado vs Cairese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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