Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / Club Milano vs NovaRomentin

Club Milano vs NovaRomentin Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Club Milano

PPG 1.20 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NovaRomentin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.6%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

Draw 20.3% 22.7% 4.40 -10.7%

Away win 12.7% 9.1% 11.00 +39.7%

Over 2.5 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 67% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.2%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Milano2.0

NovaRomentin0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB MILANO · PPG 1.20

NOVAROMENTIN · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.20), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Club Milano (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -10.7%

NovaRomentin (A) 12.7%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +39.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Milano face NovaRomentin in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Milano a 67% chance, the draw 20% and NovaRomentin 13%, so Club Milano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Club Milano and 0.7 for NovaRomentin (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Milano are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.33 for NovaRomentin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.7%. This match finished 6-1.

Club Milano vs NovaRomentin Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone A Predictions