Ligorna vs AS Biellese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Italy - Serie D - Girone A Group A - 32 Campo Sportivo Ligorna· Genova Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Ligorna PPG 2.33

2-1 MISS

AS Biellese PPG 1.80

Draw· -2.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ligorna face AS Biellese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ligorna a 51% chance, the draw 30% and AS Biellese 20%, so Ligorna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ligorna and 0.7 for AS Biellese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ligorna are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.80 for AS Biellese. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.8%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -13.6%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -2.6%

Away 19.7%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -14.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 30.7% Odds: 2.05 -37.1%

Over 3.5 13.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 35.2% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ligorna

1.27

AS Biellese

0.67

Model SuggestionHome -13.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 37%

BTTS/No 37%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.80)