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Ligorna vs AS Biellese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Ligorna

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

AS Biellese

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-19.7%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Draw 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Away win 19.7% 23.1% 4.33 -14.7%

Over 2.5 30.7% 48.8% 2.05 -37.1%

Over 3.5 13.2% — — —

BTTS 35.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob35.2%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ligorna1.3

AS Biellese0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIGORNA · PPG 2.33

AS BIELLESE · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Ligorna (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.6%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

AS Biellese (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ligorna face AS Biellese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ligorna a 51% chance, the draw 30% and AS Biellese 20%, so Ligorna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ligorna and 0.7 for AS Biellese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ligorna are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.80 for AS Biellese. This match finished 2-1.

Ligorna vs AS Biellese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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