Derthona vs Pro Imperia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Italy - Serie D - Girone A Group A - 33 Stadio Fausto Coppi· Tortona Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Derthona PPG 0.63

0-0 HIT CS2

Pro Imperia PPG 1.19

Over2.5· +7.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Derthona face Pro Imperia in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derthona a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Pro Imperia 30%, so Derthona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Derthona and 1.1 for Pro Imperia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derthona are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.19 for Pro Imperia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -7.4%

Draw 32.7%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -3.5%

Away 29.5%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -20.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 23.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Derthona

1.38

Pro Imperia

1.09

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+7.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs Home POOR (0.63)