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Derthona vs Pro Imperia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Derthona

PPG 0.63 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pro Imperia

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.2%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.7%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Draw 32.7% 33.9% 2.95 -3.5%

Away win 29.5% 37.0% 2.70 -20.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.5% 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 23.5% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derthona1.4

Pro Imperia1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DERTHONA · PPG 0.63

PRO IMPERIA · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.19) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Derthona (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.4%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -3.5%

Pro Imperia (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derthona face Pro Imperia in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derthona a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Pro Imperia 30%, so Derthona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Derthona and 1.1 for Pro Imperia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derthona are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.19 for Pro Imperia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Derthona vs Pro Imperia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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