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Ligorna vs NovaRomentin Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Ligorna

PPG 2.38 · HOME

9 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NovaRomentin

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.3%1-17.7%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-17.1%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-17.4%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 69.4% 1.44 +6.3%

Draw 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

Away win 7.7% 15.2% 6.60 -49.2%

Over 2.5 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 40.0% 2.50 -9.5%

BTTS 45.8% 58.8% 1.70 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 9-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.8%

H 74% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ligorna2.4

NovaRomentin0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIGORNA · PPG 2.38

NOVAROMENTIN · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ligorna (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +6.3%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -26.4%

NovaRomentin (A) 7.7%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ligorna face NovaRomentin in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ligorna a 74% chance, the draw 18% and NovaRomentin 8%, so Ligorna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ligorna and 0.7 for NovaRomentin (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ligorna are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.31 for NovaRomentin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 9-1.

Ligorna vs NovaRomentin Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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