Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / Vado vs AS Biellese

Vado vs AS Biellese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Vado

PPG 2.56 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

AS Biellese

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.6%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.5%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 41.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.8% — — —

BTTS 47.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vado1.4

AS Biellese0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VADO · PPG 2.56

AS BIELLESE · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Vado (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

AS Biellese (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vado face AS Biellese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vado a 48% chance, the draw 31% and AS Biellese 21%, so Vado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vado and 0.9 for AS Biellese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vado are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.69 for AS Biellese. This match finished 3-2.

Vado vs AS Biellese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone A Predictions