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Saluzzo vs Derthona Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Saluzzo

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derthona

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.6%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 28.5% — — —

Over 2.5 46.7% — — —

Over 3.5 25.2% — — —

BTTS 53.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.2%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saluzzo1.4

Derthona1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SALUZZO · PPG 1.25

DERTHONA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Saluzzo (H) 41.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Derthona (A) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Saluzzo face Derthona in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saluzzo a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Derthona 28%, so Saluzzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Saluzzo and 1.1 for Derthona (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saluzzo are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Derthona. This match finished 1-1.

Saluzzo vs Derthona Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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