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Gozzano vs Cairese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Gozzano

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cairese

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.6%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.2%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% — — —

Draw 34.7% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 32.8% — — —

Over 3.5 14.6% — — —

BTTS 42.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.2%

D 35% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 14.2%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gozzano1.1

Cairese0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOZZANO · PPG 1.19

CAIRESE · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Gozzano (H) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cairese (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gozzano face Cairese in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gozzano a 36% chance, the draw 35% and Cairese 30%, so Gozzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gozzano and 0.9 for Cairese (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gozzano are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.31 for Cairese. This match finished 1-0.

Gozzano vs Cairese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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