Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / Pro Imperia vs Celle Varazze

Pro Imperia vs Celle Varazze Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Pro Imperia

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Celle Varazze

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.4%0-25.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.5%1-112.6%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.5%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 31.4% — — —

Over 2.5 47.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.4% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.8%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pro Imperia1.4

Celle Varazze1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PRO IMPERIA · PPG 1.31

CELLE VARAZZE · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Pro Imperia (H) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Celle Varazze (A) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Imperia face Celle Varazze in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Imperia a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Celle Varazze 31%, so Pro Imperia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pro Imperia and 1.2 for Celle Varazze (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Imperia are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Celle Varazze. This match finished 0-1.

Pro Imperia vs Celle Varazze Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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